The Congress is expected to secure one in every four votes if an election happens right now according to one of the latest surveys. The NDA’s popularity is on shaky ground especially in West, Central and South India, with a drop in eight percentage points from May 2017.
As was evident in the Gujarat elections, the Congress is on the upward slope in villages and towns, but in cities, it is the BJP that reigns.
The BJP seems to be losing the goodwill of farmers and traders, and both farmers and non-farmers hold the opinion that the UPA addressed their concerns better.
While the largest group that is willing to vote for the BJP remains the youth (18-25 years), it has declined sharpest among them in the last eight months.
The population’s satisfaction with the government has declined, and people have identified lack of jobs as the biggest problem.
Narendra Modi’s popularity hit a peak in May 2017 and has now receded to May 2014-levels, while the preference for Rahul Gandhi as Prime Minister has doubled.
Also, as far as the incumbent’s measures are concerned, demonetisation has proved to be more popular than GST, with many believing that GST was introduced hastily.
Interestingly, in South India, Narendra Modi trails behind Rahul Gandhi as the prime ministerial candidate of choice, with Gandhi getting 27 per cent of the vote as against Modi’s 24 per cent.