After Gujarat and Rajasthan, there are doubts if Modi will become the PM again. From AP Chandrababu is going against Modi. Jagan wants his MPs to resign. KCR is also thinking about the future strategy.
So it’s not a foregone conclusion that Modi will be the next Prime Minister. The number of seats the BJP gets in the next election will determine who becomes the next Prime Minister.
The PM’s clout over the coalition partners will be largely determined by how close BJP gets to it’s 2014 figure of 282. BJP has to make the next election close to a wave election if it has to ensure a repeat of the 2014 mandate.
If it gets about 230 to 250 seats , there will probably be a leadership tussle within the BJP and the next PM could be a person other than Modi.
If BJP gets less than 200 seats, Congress Chief Rahul Gandhi will be the next Prime Minister. Since BJP + Congress tend to get about 330 seats in total, BJP less than 200 will mean Congress closer to 130.
There could be a coalition government also if others don’t support BJP and Congress. It is still the BJP’s game to lose – but anti-incumbency has been haunting the Governments from time to time.
The pattern of 100 crore voters in India is like this. About – 17 crore for BJP, 8 crore for Congress and 8 crore for various regional parties. About 33 crore – are not going out to vote.
These 67 crore unaligned voters hold the key to the next election. They are 4 times the support base of the BJP and 8 times that of the Congress.
So it could be anybody’s game.